The famous saying “if it’s not broken, why fix it?” is sometimes directed towards a justification of complacency and laziness. However, when it comes to foreign policy and politics, general trends that are kept constant for decades due to their effectiveness can be seen. One case of this is how the People’s Republic of China, or the PRC, mirrors political influence when attempting to sway the allegiance of various nations in Latin America. While the PRC and the USSR focused on influencing the region during different decades, both countries are using similar doctrines when it comes to decreasing American hegemony in the region. From military, economic, to political assistance, China is providing an alternative package to the US. Similar to how the Soviets were able to sway various nations like Cuba and Nicaragua to their side, China is able to not only increase their presence in the region, but benefit off the rich natural resources of Latin America. Therefore, analyzing Soviet influence in the region during the Cold War provides us a unique opportunity to view how Chinese influence in the region may seem in the coming years. Not only this, analyzing direct examples of Chinese influence in the region and how they are actively changing the political sphere is also crucial.
Most crucially, at least from the Chinese point of view, economic influence to shift Latin America away from the US and towards a Chinese-centered policy has been one of the most effective ways of countering US hegemony in the region. The Council on Foreign Relations article titled “China’s Growing Influence in Latin America,” written by Diana Roy, a staff writer from the Council on Foreign Relations specializing in inter-American dialogue, argues that China has steadily expanded its influence throughout Latin America primarily through economic investment, infrastructure projects, trade relationships, and energy partnerships rather than direct military intervention. While military intervention is definitely something that happens, this increase in trade has allowed Latin American nations to trust China with the future of their population and economic sovereignty. Specifically, the article emphasizes China’s use of the Belt and Road Initiative, investments in sectors like mining, oil, telecommunications, and infrastructure, and growing political relationships with countries such as Brazil, Venezuela, and Peru to challenge long-standing American influence in the region(Roy 2025). While the source provides a lot of information and data about how China is directly investing in various Latin American countries, this source has a deeper usage as a modern interpretation of foreign influence seen in Latin America and elsewhere that weaponizes globalization and economic investments/aid as a way to sway nations and gain more influence in them. Similar to how the Soviet Union influenced countries like Nicaragua and Cuba by providing them various forms of economic aid and investment that they otherwise would not have had or had to rely on the US for, China is able to do similar activities and market itself as a long-term sustainable economic partner. For countries in Latin America, who specialize in natural resources like fuel, metals, and food, a long-term economic partner that is able to provide them serious investments is working as a method to sway political parties away from a US-centered economy. This article also talks about the military, specifically focused on space. However, Roy’s article is much better used as an example and template of how foreign policy can use economics.
While Roy talks mostly about the economy, the military is absolutely having a massive influence on what nations Latin American governments are going to be aligned to. Specifically, a Military Review journal article from 2018 written by Capt. George Gurrola of the US Army explains how China has been recently ramping up its military exports to various nations in Latin America. The Military Review, the professional review for the United States Army, has as its first photo on the article a picture of various Venezuelan troops standing in front of a Chinese-made heavy transport aircraft. Gurrola argues that China’s growing influence in Latin America should be understood as part of a broader long-term geopolitical strategy designed to expand Chinese economic and political power while reducing American influence in the region, agreeing with the analysis made by Roy. However, the article also discusses how Chinese arms sales, military cooperation agreements, officer exchanges, training programs, and technological partnerships with Latin American nations are working as direct methods of expanding Chinese geopolitical influence without direct military confrontation (Gurrola 2018). By giving large amounts of Chinese-made weapons, many of which are directly designed to counter Western and American-made systems, it is logical to expect how China is both threatening the United States’ defensive posture on its homeland as well as expanding its economic and military prowess. Not only this, by providing weapon systems, Chinese markets are guaranteeing a continual buyer of munitions, supplies, and parts. Gurrola’s article excels as a way to detail how foreign powers use weapons transfers, advisory support, and security cooperation to weaken regional dominance of other nations, in this case specifically America. This is similar to the historical evidence that has been seen in countries like Nicaragua and Cuba, where the Soviets sent various amounts of Soviet bloc advisors and Soviet military equipment, which then forced the United States to significantly decrease arms sales to that nation (key examples include Iran). However, unlike Soviet influence seen during the Cold War, Gurrola argues that China’s military expansion is more gradual and closely tied to economic relationships and infrastructure investment rather than direct ideological exportation or insurgent support, something that significantly puts China apart from Soviet doctrine.
There is another military document agreeing with Captain Gurrola. An article titled “The Expanding Leverage of the People’s Republic of China in Latin America: Implications for US National Security and Global Order,” written by Major General Evan L. Pettus, USAF, restated Gurrola’s points while focusing less on economics and more on the defensive doctrinal threat Chinese influence may have. This article, published in the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, was highlighted on the US Southern Operations Command website. This article argues that China’s growing influence in Latin America extends beyond economics and increasingly carries important military and strategic implications for the United States. The article emphasizes that China uses infrastructure investment, trade agreements, telecommunications projects, and economic partnerships to build long-term leverage throughout the region specifically to support future military and security goals (Pettus 2023). Major General Pettus specifically highlights the direct security risk an increased Chinese presence in Latin America would have if any conflict in the Indo-Pacific region occurred. Chinese military cooperation, technology transfers, space infrastructure, dual-use ports, and defense relationships with Latin American nations may on the surface seem as harmless economic joint investment opportunities, but if a confrontation with Chinese forces were to go hot, these would serve as direct bases able to be used for military strikes. Therefore, this economic investment highlighted by Roy and Gurrola would also be considered expanding Chinese strategic influence without direct military confrontation. This article significantly shaped how I view Chinese intervention, as this much more closely aligned with Cold War-era American doctrine. Similar to how the Soviets were able to build various amounts of airports, ports, radar infrastructure, and telecommunications devices in areas like Cuba, when times of global tensions like the Cuban Missile Crisis occurred, these bases were then used by the Soviets and Cubans to threaten American security. Major General Pettus’ article highlighted directly the potential dangers an increased Chinese presence in the region could have.
With all this military and economic influence, Beijing has been able to pull strings to shape foreign policy in a way that it wants to. Specifically, China has been able to recently shift Taiwanese allies towards the PRC’s side. An Atlantic Council article directly highlights this shift. This article is written by Kitsch Liao, an associate director of the Atlantic Council, and Nik Foster and Santiago Villa, both of whom are nonresident fellows. This article highlights how China has increasingly attempted to isolate Taiwan diplomatically and politically in order to weaken Taiwanese sovereignty and international legitimacy, with the most recent effects highlighting how China was able to leverage its economic and military influence in Latin American countries to switch from recognizing Taiwan to the PRC. By forcing countries to cut off diplomatic ties with Taiwan, the PRC is trying to restrict Taiwan’s participation in international organizations and spread narratives portraying Taiwan as an inseparable part of China. It’s worked well — Costa Rica in 2007, Panama in 2017, Dominican Republic in 2018, El Salvador in 2018, Nicaragua in 2021, and Honduras in 2023 all shifted from recognizing Taiwan to recognizing the PRC as the “true” China after increased political posturing from the PRC (Liao, Foster, and Villa 2024) . This Atlantic Council article helped tie how China was using influence highlighted by Roy, Gurrola, and Pettus to shape its own foreign policy for the 21st century. By recognizing the PRC, not only are these nations elevating Chinese positions in international politics, it is showing a direct shift from supporting the US and a key US ally to supporting the PRC.
From investments spanning economics, politics, and the military, the PRC has been able to emulate the success seen in the Soviet Union’s time in swaying Latin American nations away from the US and towards its own goals. While some scholars have been highlighting this as a form of neocolonialism, what is more important in the discussion here is what the future of the United States will hold as it loses various neighboring key allies in Latin America. After all, one of the few reasons why America was able to succeed during times of great global conflicts like the World Wars was because no foreign ground invasion has ever been encountered on mainland American soil since the Revolutionary War. As narratives shift and China is able to influence these nations, military experts like Pettus and Gurrola are highlighting how dangerous this is for American security concerns. Economic experts like Roy are highlighting how American exports and import prices could fluctuate, leading to troubles at home. Political experts like those who wrote the Atlantic Council article highlight how American allies, not just the US, could be directly threatened due to this political shift. As tensions around the world rise in a time of great global strife, it is important to analyze and look out for future evidence of Chinese influence not only in Latin America, but around the globe.
Sources
Gurrola, José de Jesús. 2018. “China’s Growing Influence in Latin America.” Military Review. Army University Press. July–August 2018. https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/July-August-2018/Gurrola-China/.
Liao, Kitsch, Nik Foster, and Santiago Villa. 2024. Maintaining Taiwan’s International Space to Enhance Deterrence Against China. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/maintaining-taiwans-international-space-to-enhance-deterrence-against-china/.
Pettus, Evan L. 2023. “The Expanding Leverage of the People’s Republic of China in Latin America: Implications for US National Security and Global Order.” Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs. U.S. Southern Command. https://www.southcom.mil/MEDIA/NEWS-ARTICLES/Article/3553735/the-expanding-leverage-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-in-latin-america-implic/.
Roy, Diana. 2025. “China’s Growing Influence in Latin America.” Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounders/china-influence-latin-america-argentina-brazil-venezuela-security-energy-bri.